Télécharger Ebook Beyond greed and fear : understanding behavioral finance and the psychology of investing, by Hersh Shefrin

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Beyond greed and fear : understanding behavioral finance and the psychology of investing, by Hersh Shefrin

Télécharger Ebook Beyond greed and fear : understanding behavioral finance and the psychology of investing, by Hersh Shefrin

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Détails sur le produit

Relié: 402 pages

Editeur : Oxford University Press Inc; Édition : 2nd Revised edition (1 octobre 2002)

Collection : Financial Management Association Survey & Synthesis Series

Langue : Anglais

ISBN-10: 0195161211

ISBN-13: 978-0195161212

Dimensions du produit:

3,8 x 24,1 x 16,3 cm

Moyenne des commentaires client :

3.6 étoiles sur 5

2 commentaires client

Classement des meilleures ventes d'Amazon:

1.176.191 en Livres (Voir les 100 premiers en Livres)

Une théorie entre trois actes sur la perception de l'évolution des marchés, l'influence de celle-ci sur les marchés et la subjectivité du risque tel que perçu. Enfin tout cela est psychologique n'est-ce pas? On pense aussi à la reflexivité, autre théorie récente. Pas trop facile à lire cependant. mais de nombreux exemples en rendent la lecture agréable et instructive.

La théorie économique classique veut que les marchés soient rationnels. L'auteur s'évertue à démontrer le contraire. Notamment en observant des marchés qui dépendent de très peu de paramètres, or, quand ces paramètres sont figés, les prix peuvent néanmoins être victimes de réelles danses de Saint-Gui, c'est la "non rationalité" humaine qui entre en jeu.Pas besoin d'être un expert pour lire ce livre, mais il est quand même quelque peu indigeste.

Three themes are the common thread throughout this book.Heuristic-driven Bias is one of them. It includesAvailability Bias, Hindsight Bias, Familiarity Bias,Rule of 5, 1/n-rule (naive diversification), Over-confidenceand Optimism.Aversion to Loss and Aversion to Ambiguity; representative-ness, Consevatism due to Anchoring-and-(lack of) adjustment,Illusion to Validity are also discussed in this book.I do not agree with the Gamblers' Fallacy in the stockmarket. The stock market was compared to the tossing ofa coin. They are different. As the market rises, the risksof a correction or a bear definitely increases whereas theprobability of tossing a coin to land a head of tail isconstant all the time.Hindsight Bias was not well defined in this book. This booksaid there are more male traders than women (75% to 25%).Surprisingly, women make better traders, albeit only slightly.By the next edition, I look forward to more 'meat' in the book.Practical application ideas seem insufficient here. It isa book more for you to understand human behaviour in thestock market. A worthwhile read.

This book has a good heart, but I can't recommend it so highly. The author takes several classical cognitive mistakes that humans make (some will recognize the classic names of Kahnemann and Tversky; they are one of the substrates of this book). The author applies such mistakes to a wide range of investment problems - holding on to losing stocks too long, anthropomorphizing stock decisions, and so on. The sort of psychology that makes you think that a coin that has flipped tails three times now has a 95% chance of flipping heads on the next toss. Most intelligent readers (the sort that buy Harvard Press books) could get the same points in a much briefer format, like a book chapter or a 10-page article. For example, people tend not to save enough for retirement because the future seems a long time away and they think they'll catch up and it will work out. Well, yes. Next?

This book contains some interesting tidbits. Unfortunately, it is rife with serious errors and unwarranted assertions.For example, in chapter 6 Prof. Shefrin attempts to discredit contrarian sentiment indicators. For all I know they may be worthy of discredit. Unfortunately for his argument, the data he chooses to display, Figures 6-1 and 6-3, appear to support the value of these indicators.He declares the practice of investing in companies one knows to be "familiarity bias". While this is apt for employees with all funds in the company stock, he also applies it to Peter Lynch. According to Shefrin, Lynch beat the market 11 out of 13 years, and beat his nearest competitor by 6%(!) per year. Shefrin grudgingly admits there may have been some skill involved, but goes on to inform us that _investors_ "attribute too much of that success to skill rather than luck". Uh-huh.In his chapter on public offerings, Prof. Shefrin declares that existing shareholders are being ripped off, because dramatic gains at the start of trading demonstrate the IPO could have sold at a higher price. Apparently Prof. Shefrin is unaware that underwriters enter into an obligation to support the aftermarket, and would be unlikely proceed without a good chance of an aftermarket pop, nor would subscribers purchase.The chapter on closed end fund discounts is interesting. Unfortunately Prof. Shefrin fails to include the net present value of future management fees in his discussion.Perhaps there will be a much revised and improved second edition.

A great account of behavioral insights with the most relevant examples and illustrations

I am a behavioral economist with a deep belief in the notion that human decision-makers deviate in important ways from the scientific principles laid down in modern rational choice theory. There is no doubt but that very many investors hold erroneous notions of the dynamics of price movements, and having a correct understanding will, on average lead to better returns on one's portfolio. Sheffrin presents the evidence for this position in an interesting and accessible manner.Shefrin's main advice for investors is absolutely correct, and would improve the asset positions of many poor souls with idiotic notions of stock dynamics. His advice is that if you are not a gifted and dedicated stock expert, you should invest in a low-maintenance cost array of mutual funds, and above all, do not churn your stocks. It doesn't help to be smart, lucky, a stud with the girls, or blessed by God. Moreover, if you think you have one of the "gifted analysts" for a broker, you are to be counted as among the suckers who are never given an even break.Shefrin has another thesis which he presents with great verve, but which is on very shakey grounds. This is that "gifted stock analysts" can on average, significantly out-perform the market. He believes this MUST be the case if a significant fraction of investors are behaving irrationality. However, there is another possibility, which is that stock brokers as a group gain from the excessive churning that irrational investors permit or ask them to do, but that it is impossible to "beat the market" except by pure luck or by personally studying firm fundamentals and future prospects.Shefrin's data in favor of the "gifted analyst" is episodic and anecdotal, and there is plenty of data on the other side. For instance, in Malkiel's classic "Random Walk Down Wall Street", he relates the evidence that chimps throwing darts do as well as major brokerage houses. Sheffrin presents contrary evidence for a more recent period in which "gifted experts" outperform the random darts. New evidence, collected by Money magazine, shows that a group of experts did far worse than the darts in 2003. All of this evidence is spotty and anecdotal. The plural of anecdote is not data.I am not convinced by this book that the efficient markets hypothesis, applied to final returns to investors (after payments to stock brokers and other transactions costs), is not correct. I think the author makes a mistake taking so strong a position when the evidence is so weak on this account. I am certainly not convinced that Malkiel's analysis is in any way overturned by new evidence.However, if Shefrin convinces a few investors to act more sanely, he will have fulfilled an important social function.

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Beyond greed and fear : understanding behavioral finance and the psychology of investing, by Hersh Shefrin PDF